The fierce battle for Pennsylvania, the top prize of US election

“We need everyone in Pennsylvania to vote. You are going to make the difference in this election,” said Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris as she went on a rare door-to-door campaign in Pennsylvania, taking a leaf from the Indian election playbook. Her Republican rival, Donald Trump, also dedicated the final day of campaigning to Pennsylvania. The hard yards put by both the leaders has no doubt reinforced that Pennsylvania is the biggest prize of the 2024 swing states as the presidential election hurtles towards a photo finish.
It is for a reason that foreign media have said this is “Pennsylvania’s presidential election”. This is so because Pennsylvania, with the most electoral votes (19) than any other battleground state, could possibly determine whether Trump or Harris clinches the White House.
Pennsylvania, however, is not a stranger to its status as a swing state. In fact, 10 of the last 12 White House winners have been correctly picked by Pennsylvanians, data shows. Moreover, the candidate who has won Pennsylvania has also won the swing states of Michigan and Wisconsin — together known as the “Blue wall” — in the past eight elections.
With Pennsylvania, Harris could pass the magic number of 270 electoral college votes by winning just three swing states overall. Moreover, no Democrat has won the White House without Pennsylvania since 1948.
However, it will be easier said than done for Harris.
Pennsylvania was a Democratic stronghold until Trump became the first Republican to win the key state since the 1980s in the 2016 election. However, Joe Biden, who is from Pennsylvania’s Scranton, wrested Pennsylvania in 2020, with the state putting him over the 270-vote threshold.
For Trump, Pennsylvania holds great significance as he was shot at while speaking at a rally near Butler on July 14 — a key moment in the campaign.

Pennsylvania has a large share of white, working-class voters — a demographic which has traditionally backed Republicans. However, Harris has made inroads with white voters compared to Biden’s performance in 2020.
Pennsylvania’s older population will be crucial as well. In 2016, they voted en masse for Trump, and he retained their trust in 2020 as well.
On the other hand, southeast Pennsylvania is home to thousands of Latinos and has a sizeable Puerto Rican population. This voter bloc has been wooed by Harris amid a controversy over a comedian’s racist remark about Puerto Ricans at a Trump rally. Harris has repeatedly attacked Trump after comedian Tony Hinchcliffe referred to Puerto Rico as a “floating island of garbage”.

Puerto Rican singer Ricky Martin performs during a campaign rally with Kamala Harris (AFP)

Meanwhile, during his campaign, Trump vehemently attacked Harris over her previous endorsement of a ban on fracking, which is the method used to extract natural gas. Notably, Pennsylvania is America’s second-largest natural gas producer.
“Fracking? She’s been against it for 12 years,” Trump said during a debate in Philadelphia, referring to Harris’s previous remark as a senator. However, since then, Harris has said that she has changed her stance. During a debate with Trump, Harris clarified that she was against a fracking ban.
Pennsylvania has seen the most money and manpower being directed by the two leaders than any other battleground. It is a measure of Pennsylvania’s importance for both the candidates amid a neck-and-neck race for the White House.